We’re only great till we’re not
I'm apolitical in general. I vote, but I find politics uninteresting and dispiriting. At the same time, I'm very proudly American. I was born in this country and, like many lucky children of immigrants, I drank the Kool-Aid. I believe in American exceptionalism. I believe we live in the greatest country on earth.
Now, for the first time in my life, I no longer take those feelings for granted. I realize that all empires fall. I realize that 240 years may feel like forever, but it’s a blip historically. And, I realize, most people never realize they are part of the end of an era until it’s too late. Now, for the first time in my life, I worry that I may already be in that group, living out the last vestiges of American’s place at the top of the global hierarchy.
I’m obsessed with negative asymmetric risks. Issues where the potential loss is far greater than the potential reward. The existential risk that artificial general intelligence poses. The potential destruction of nuclear warfare. I find these topics and the psychology of how we deal with them fascinating. But I largely view them academically as the consequences don’t feel personal. Here’s a perfect video encapsulating negative asymmetric risk from The Last Dance:
A pill. 10% chance it kills you. 90% chance it cures your headache. Jordan’s answer is hilarious because we know the outcome. He didn’t get injured and went on to win 6 championships. But, in all honesty, his decision shows a terrible understanding of asymmetric risk. No one in their right mind would take the pill for a headache given the possible dire consequences.
The phenomenon behind Donald Trump is an issue of negative asymmetric risk. There’s a low probability that this signals the end of our democracy as we know it. But that low probability has increased over the last four years and has increased dramatically in the last four months. To make up numbers for illustrative purposes, let’s say the probability of ending our democracy has gone from a steady state of 0.001% to 0.01% with Trump’s election to 1% more recently. No one would describe 1% as a high probability event. But, it’s 1000x higher than 0.001%. And given the dire consequences, we ought to take this threat very seriously.
On election night in 2016, I happened to be in the liberal bastion otherwise known as the Bay Area. The morning after, the area looked like the apocalypse had come. I had a meeting where participants acted as if a close loved one had died. At the time, I laughed at these liberal histrionics.
I never had any illusions about Trump, but I had strong beliefs in our institutions. The separation of powers. The limited powers of the Presidency. The good ones are rarely as good as you hope for; the bad ones are rarely as bad as you fear. There were some sounding the right alarms, but I wasn’t paying attention.
I was wrong. I was focused on the wrong risks. I was thinking about the laws that might get passed and never considered the subversion of the very institutions I placed my faith in. Now, I’m sober to that reality.
What are the factors that contribute to the growing risk to our democracy?
The pandemic. Beyond the terrible loss of life, the pandemic has also led to an increase in absentee and mail-in voting. Two issues as it pertains to our democracies: 1) Trump has managed to lay a foundation (with no factual support) for losing trust in the process and the potential outcome as a result, and 2) There may be more outstanding votes than usual on election night, leaving outcomes delayed and posing additional risks.
The courts. Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s untimely passing and the Republican control of the Senate and White House will ultimately lead to a new justice confirmed and a conservative shift in the court. While the court is meant to be above partisan politics, recent history suggests that may be hoping for too much. In Bush v Gore, the justices had the opportunity to present a united front at a tumultuous time, yet instead had a 5-4 vote that fell completely along party lines.
The racial injustice. Our country is at a boiling point with the recent cases of racial injustice. We are more polarized than ever and the rhetoric is only getting more confrontational on both sides. When all sides are looking for any excuse to call out the other and ultimately fight, the chances of getting a fight only increase.
The misinformation. The power of social media combined with the influence of Russia and other malicious foreign entities is particularly dangerous. We are susceptible to false reporting on results, unsubstantiated claims of fraud, and other challenges that may prove hard to combat in the modern consumption bubbles we operate in.
The narcissist. We have the ultimate narcissist in The White House. He refuses to admit he is wrong.
He may not be able to admit he has lost, especially if he can find any way of convincing himself he hasn’t. He can’t ever be seen to lose, which increases our risk that he acts in bad faith.
The military and police. Ultimately, the two institutions that could hold Trump accountable to a peaceful transfer are two institutions that have shown a lot of support for Trump (though Trump’s support among the military may be on the decline). I know it’s dire to even think about the need for armed support for a transfer of power, but we must consider this in the context of assessing the risk to our democracy itself.
This is no longer a time for complacency. I am not a part of the liberal left. I recently registered as a Democrat only so I could participate in the primary process. I am not a big fan of Biden. I wasn’t a big fan of Hillary Clinton. I understand the appeal of Trump as an outsider to a two-party system that hasn’t done enough to serve their constituents.
But the 2020 presidential election is NOT about policies or proposals. It’s about one narcissistic man who will say and do nearly anything to avoid being a loser. Who would undermine our institutions simply because it served his ego. Vote for whoever you want for Senator. Vote for whoever you want in your local races. I am not making a partisan appeal. I am appealing to your belief in America.
We need a decisive Biden victory. Vote early. Make sure your loved ones vote. Talk to one undecided or Trump voter about the possible risks to our democracy. The risks to America’s greatness. Again, I’m not arguing this is a high risk. I’m saying this is a much higher risk than ever in recent history. If you don’t see the possibility, give me a call. Write me a note. If you can even see the possibility of our democracy being undermined, let me ask you: is it worth it to not vote?
33 years in this country and I wouldn’t trade it for any other. No country brims with possibility like this one. People die to get here. Leave entire lives behind. Don’t take America for granted.
We’re only great until we’re not.