Looking to understand the 2020 election? Look no further than All-Star voting.

Fan votes for an All-Star Game in sports. How could this entertaining vote have anything to do with the 2020 presidential election?!?! I’m not sure it does. But this year’s voting is a not-so-subtle reminder of a vote, four years ago, that tells us everything we need to know about the upcoming presidential election. No, not Donald Trump’s election. I’m talking about the NHL All-Star vote of 2016.

For context, this year, Tacko Fall is generating headlines. The 7 ft 5 in phenomenon plays for the Boston Celtics…kind of. As of this writing, he’s only played in 4 of Boston’s 37 games, averaging just over 4 points per game. Otherwise, he’s been playing for Boston’s G-league affiliate, the equivalent of the NBA minor leagues.

Yet, the combination of his incredible size, name and personality has led to a striking anomaly: his name is high on the list of fan votes for the NBA All-Star game. He’s currently in 6th place amongst Eastern Conference forwards, a far cry from his actual statistical merit as a player.

In this case, it seems like a relatively harmless joke. He’s still not high enough amongst voters to take his place amongst All-Stars, his own coach has said Tacko doesn’t deserve it, and even if by some fluke his vote total got high enough, the fan vote only comprises 50% of the total vote for the All-Star Game (the other 50% comprised of media and other players).

Therefore, as much fun as the headlines are, we won’t be seeing Tacko Fall at this year’s NBA All-Star Game. But the NHL All-Star vote of 2016…that was different.

People refuse to be left behind

It’s 2016. Here you have the National Hockey League (NHL). At the time, the 4th largest sport in the USA, following American football, baseball, and basketball. An entertainment vehicle that depends on our interest. It’s a large enterprise, with 32 teams competing in over 1,200 games each season in large arenas around the US and Canada. TV deals, sponsorships, there’s a whole ecosystem that surrounds our interest, allowing the average NHL player to earn upwards of $2 million per year and the NHL to earn over $4b in annual revenues.

Capitalism is a wonderful thing. People pay for what they want, generating jobs and value to all those involved with either the production or consumption of the commodity.

But all is not great in the world of the NHL. The interest in basketball is growing, as is soccer. People complain about the violence of the NHL, and viewership has been stagnant or even slightly declining over the past few years. There is a collective sense of urgency within the NHL leadership around how to grow the game, around how to grow interest.

But in the world of capitalism, size isn’t what matters. Growth does. It’s not ok to just be profitable. You need to be more profitable. To grow faster. To achieve better margins. The system is constructed around more, always more. Growth is like oxygen to the system.  

So, given the dilemma of stagnating viewership, the NHL has sought to try to evolve the game to entice the next generation of fans. The data lights the way: the NHL begins to believe they need more drama, more flair translating to more speed, more goals, more skills. If the NHL is losing to basketball, they must start to emulate it. Rule changes that favor skill vs. brawn on the ice…less hitting and fighting in the game….more room for skilled players to operate.  

That’s a pretty big change in the world of hockey. Hockey has this tradition of ‘enforcers’. People on your team whose primary job is to protect your ‘star’ players. They aren’t the best skaters, the best passers, the best shooters. Far from it. But if someone on the other team hits your ‘star’ too hard, you can be sure the ‘enforcer’ will do the same to the other team’s ‘star’. An eye-for-an-eye mentality that is a deep part of how NHL teams were made. It harkens back to our primal instincts for self-defense. Every great NHL team would always have 1 or 2 enforcers, ensuring other teams knew that roughhousing their stars would end in ugly retaliation.

In this quest for more high-scoring games with more skillful players, there’s no room for this enforcer type. Already, by 2016, these enforcers are on their way to getting phased out of the league. Now instead of 2 per team, there’s 1. Some teams survive with 0. Suddenly it becomes a liability to have an enforcer on your roster when you could have one more speedy goal scorer.

Capitalism calls this process ‘creative destruction’. In our economy, in our quest for more growth, we shift to what we believe is going to be bigger and better. Ridesharing companies come along and replace taxi companies. Amazon comes in and Borders goes bankrupt. The ‘creative destruction’ of capitalism means that each change brings with it the downfall of certain industries and jobs as they reconfigure into new structures. We can debate whether this process is positive or negative, but there’s no debating that it’s inevitable.

It all sounds kind of abstract, but these enforcers, they have names. Names like John Scott. A 6 ft 8 in enforcer. Born in Canada. Grinded his way to the NHL, where he played in 286 games, only scoring 5 goals along the way. Only 5 goals, but 544 penalty minutes, as he made sure the other team always knew this was not a team to be messed with. A true, old-school enforcer. Not a great scorer. Not a great player. But a great enforcer.

Instead of being a regular in the NHL, he bounces from team to team, moving from the minor leagues to the professionals and back again as he tries to keep a steady job. A guy like John Scott no longer makes sense in the modern NHL.

In your search to compete, in your search to get more, you don’t get to make choices about humans. You make choices for the company. You speak in abstractions about restructuring or wage stagnation – you don’t look at individuals.

It’s not just the removal of enforcers. To get new fans, more experimentation is required. The All-Star Game becomes a test tube, trying out various changes to the game to see if they might resonate with new fans and allow for the game to grow. Again, not much thought is given to the current fans. The purists who venerate the traditions of the game. Those fans’ love for the original is ignored in the quest for more growth. This year, the NHL announces that the All Star Game goes to 3 on 3 instead of the traditional 5 on 5 game. It’s hard to overstate how fundamental a change that is to the game of hockey.

For companies, the next customer is always the most important. Take Disney. Disney original films are classics. Most true Disney fans don’t want or ask for remakes of these films. Yet, Disney believes they can attract more eyeballs to new, live-action films, fueling their quest for more. They can’t hold onto something pure, something original, something true, if there’s an opportunity for greater profits. They have to make live-action remakes of every Disney classic once they see the potential for further profits.

The rebellion is swift and powerful

The reaction is swift - the fans, the purists who feel left behind and left out, understandably start to question the motives here. They start to look for an outlet to convey their frustration. And they find it…in a man named John Scott. Fans in the NHL get to vote on who becomes an All-Star. An idea emerges…what if we vote on the player who stands so contrary to the modern NHL? Who has no place in this modern NHL All-Star Game? Who can convey our frustration with the NHL? John Scott. The journeyman enforcer who doesn’t have the speed and skills to survive in the NHL, much less in the All-Star Game amongst the best of the best.

The people feeling left behind in the ‘wonders’ of modern American capitalism start to question the motives of the politicians meant to serve them. They start to look for an outlet to convey their frustration. First they find the Tea Party. And then they find…in a man named Donald Trump. These left-behind Americans get to vote on who becomes President. An idea emerges…what if we don’t vote for the person we are “supposed” to vote for but don’t believe in? What if we vote for someone who has no place on the debate stage? Who can convey our frustration with the economic and political system? Donald Trump. The celebrity tycoon who doesn’t have the savvy or intelligence to run a casino, much less the most powerful country in the world.

And wouldn’t you know? The idea gathers momentum and suddenly John Scott is the leader in the voting. What?!?! This isn’t possible! So what happens? The entrenched elements of the status quo start to fight back. The day after the NHL sees John Scott on top of the polls, they reach out and ask him to release a statement saying he doesn’t want the votes. They stop showing the vote numbers so fans can’t see who’s leading. They call him and try to pressure him into dropping out, “Do you think you’re going to make your dad proud? What do you think your kids will think about their Dad who went into the All-Star Game this way?”, sure that this would embarrass him enough to withdraw his name from consideration.

And wouldn’t you know? The idea gathers momentum and suddenly Donald Trump is the Republican candidate. What?!?! This isn’t possible! So what happens? The entrenched elements of the status quo start to fight back. After the political media sees Donald Trump as a real presidential candidate, polls discount his chances of winning and his many miscues and mishaps are publicly aired. They try to pressure him into releasing his tax returns, sure that something in there would embarrass him enough to make him lose his support amongst voters.

They never understood what this meant to someone like John Scott. It was never about whether he was as good as anyone else. A kid who dreamed about playing in the NHL, who works his butt off, who now has a family of his own that could see him celebrated amongst the best of the best. It’s not been easy for John Scott. He really is an everyman…a real person. He is a part of this NHL system and he’s seen the system fail him. His contracts are getting shorter. People like him are falling out of the game. This is a chance to show that he has worth.

They never understood what this meant to voters. It was never about Donald Trump. It was about proving that they had a voice. That they were not meaningless pawns in a larger system, forced to choose between two candidates that would do nothing for them.It’s not been easy for these voters. They are real working class people. They are a part of this economic system and they’ve seen the system fail them. Their wages aren’t growing. Their jobs are getting cut. This is a chance to show that they still have worth.

John Scott officially comes in 1st place amongst all NHL players for the All-Star Game. He is officially a NHL All-Star. The people have finally shown that they are a force to be reckoned with, and the NHL must obviously start to reprioritize their efforts to ensure growth doesn’t come at the expense of their current fans. Right?

Donald Trump officially wins the 2016 presidential election. He is officially the 45th President of the United States. The people have finally shown that they are a force to be reckoned with, and the political system must obviously start to reprioritize their efforts to ensure growth doesn’t come at the expense of the working class. Right?

The aftermath?

John Scott, a member of the Phoenix Coyotes, gets called into his general manager’s office two weeks before the All-Star Game. He’s told he’s been traded to the Montreal Canadiens just when he happens to be the top story in the NHL. When he’s supposed to be an All-Star. Coincidence?!?!

The political establishment launches a Special Counsel investigation led by Robert Mueller into Russian interference in the 2016 election. The Mueller investigation just so happens when the first non-establishment candidate wins the top political office in the US. When he’s beginning to serve as President. Coincidence?!?!

Not only that, then John Scott is told that Montreal won’t actually be accepting him in the trade. They are demoting him to their minor league team, in Saint John’s, Newfoundland, North America’s easternmost city. As part of the trade, he has to get on a plane today, with 18 hours of travel just to get there. Oh, and also, it seemed the trade would remove him from participating in the All-Star Game due to being in the minor leagues and not the NHL.

Congress started exploring the impeachment of Donald Trump as early as 2017. The first attempt failed, but Democrats gained control of the House and started multiple investigations. Ultimately, in August 2019, a whistleblower complaint about a call between Trump and Ukraine led to a formal impeachment inquiry. On December 18, 2019, articles of impeachment were formally approved by the House, leaving a scarlet letter on Trump’s record just prior to the 2020 election.

They can’t just say we don’t want John Scott in the All-Star Game. They have to try to use the rules of the system against him. The Phoenix Coyotes make ‘business decisions’ that come at the cost of John Scott.

They can’t just say we don’t want Donald Trump as President. They have to try to use the rules of the system against him. Show how the election itself is flawed or how Trump himself has broken the rules of the office he holds.

Let’s not forget John Scott is a real human. This system is trying to screw him over. He has to move 18 hours across the continent the same day while his family is left behind in Phoenix…his wife 9 months pregnant with twins. That’s a human being they did that to. That’s a human being they screwed over. But the system doesn’t care.  

Let’s not forget that Trump voters are real humans. The system has been screwing them over. Cab drivers losing their jobs. Uber drivers that think they are getting a job, but really what they are getting is training the future of the automated drivers that replace them. All their data being fed into algorithms that only further accelerate their demise. These are real humans that are being screwed over. But the system doesn’t care.

John Scott ultimately wins the battle. There are people that dig through the bylaws, and find nothing that says a minor leaguer can’t participate in the NHL All-Star Game. The democratic institution must be respected. The system doesn’t exert 100% control. The people have shown they can reject the system.

Donald Trump ultimately wins the battle. The impeachment can’t get past the Senate and the democratic institution must be respected. The system doesn’t exert 100% control. The people have shown they can reject the system.

What next? Ultimately, the NHL was able to turn the John Scott experience into a speed bump that caused no fundamental change to the system. The rules were changed such that minor league players could not participate in the All-Star Game and the fans were given only preselected candidates to vote for, preventing any future John Scott scenarios. But these are Band-Aids that do nothing to address the deeper issue. The sport of hockey continues to face existential questions around how they grow interest in their sport. Can they be happy being the 4th or 5th biggest sports league in the USA and being a small niche that some kids and adults love to play and feel so passionate about?

The same questions face our political and economic system. Ultimately, Trump may or may not win the 2020 election. But the deeper issues persist. It’s not Donald Trump’s next term. It’s what people are voting for and how that affects their lives that’s the problem. It’s time to consider existential questions about the political system and who it’s serving. It’s not about the challenger to take down Trump. It’s about the challenger who can change the system. Who recognizes that when we talk about job gains or losses, there are humans in every single one of those jobs. Who realizes that the measure of lives getting better isn’t in total GDP, but in the homes families are able to live in, the jobs they are able to work, the schools they are able to go to, and the time they are able to spend together.

All-Star voting has a lot to teach us. Voting for Tacko Fall may seem like a joke, but it may be the best reminder we have that voting often carries deeper meaning, whether we recognize it or not.

PS The John Scott story is a great one. Read his own beautiful article on the experience here. And this great Radiolab podcast on it here.